:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0801Z from Region 3296 (N16E20). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 05/1413Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
05/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2312Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5024 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 May), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (07 May) and active to major storm levels on day
three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 162
Predicted   06 May-08 May 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        05 May 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  013/015-018/026-030/046

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           10/25/40
Major-severe storm    01/10/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/65