:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
05/2227Z from Region 3288. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 06/1037Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 06/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 06/0401Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (07 May), active to
severe storm levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 152
Predicted   07 May-09 May 155/155/160
90 Day Mean        06 May 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  022/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  024/032-036/055-019/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor Storm           40/35/25
Major-severe storm    15/40/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/65/45