:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2323Z from Region 3296 (N16W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 08/1552Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 07/2345Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 08/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10
May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 May). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on day one (09 May), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (10 May) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     95/50/20
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 172
Predicted   09 May-11 May 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        08 May 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  017/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  013/014-012/018-024/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/45