:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
09/0354Z from Region 3296 (N15W37). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 08/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2315Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38 pfu at 09/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 435 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(10 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 May) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    65/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     50/25/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 180
Predicted   10 May-12 May 180/180/178
90 Day Mean        09 May 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  013/025-023/030-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           35/25/05
Major-severe storm    15/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/20