:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/0045Z from Region 3296 (N15W89). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 12/2201Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 13/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
13/1950Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May), quiet levels on
day two (15 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 144
Predicted   14 May-16 May 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        13 May 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  008/008-005/005-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20