:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/0917Z from Region 3296 (N15, L=141). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/2009Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 14/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/1515Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 May), unsettled to active levels on
day two (16 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 140
Predicted   15 May-17 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        14 May 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  005/005-011/014-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20