:Product: 0522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1337Z from Region 3312 (S23E32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (23 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (24 May, 25 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 22/1740Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 22/1944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 22/1957Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1267 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (24 May) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (25 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).

III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    20/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 162
Predicted   23 May-25 May 155/155/155
90 Day Mean        22 May 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  014/018-020/022-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/50/30