:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1721Z from Region 3311 (N18W08). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (25 May) and expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 23/2130Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/2108Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2693 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 May). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    30/40/45
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 164
Predicted   25 May-27 May 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        24 May 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  010/012-013/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/50/25