:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/1446Z from Region 3312 (S24W12). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May,
28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 689 km/s at 25/1050Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1135Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3826 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 May) and quiet levels on day three (28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 152
Predicted   26 May-28 May 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        25 May 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  013/015-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/15