:Product: 0526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1754Z from Region 3314 (N15W45). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May,
29 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 588 km/s at 25/2232Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4078 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (29 May).

III.  Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 149
Predicted   27 May-29 May 148/148/145
90 Day Mean        26 May 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  005/005-005/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/30