:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/1829Z from Region 3315 (S16W34). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 463 km/s at 28/2224Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
29/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1632Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 154
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 150/140/135
90 Day Mean        29 May 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15