:Product: 0530RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 May 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/1338Z from Region 3315 (S17W48). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 30/1839Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/1258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1838Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 521 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (02 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun). III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 May 162 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 30 May 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 006/005-006/005-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/40 Minor Storm 01/05/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/15/65