:Product: 0609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/1711Z from Region 3331 (S22E37). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun,
12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 366 km/s at 09/1327Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
09/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1808Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 253 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 164
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 163/157/160
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  005/005-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/15