:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/1851Z from Region 3327 (S15W13). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun,
13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 369 km/s at 10/2038Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/0927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/0946Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12
Jun, 13 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 161
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 157/160/157
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  008/012-012/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/25