:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
13/1738Z from Region 3334 (N17E68). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 492 km/s at 12/2355Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
13/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/1539Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (15 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 146
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 146/144/140
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  005/005-007/005-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20