:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
15/1255Z from Region 3336 (S21E54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 14/2214Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 15/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 15/1634Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 153
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  017/018-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/25/15