:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0530Z from Region 3337 (N17E59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun,
19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 15/2156Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 15/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 16/0231Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Jun, 19 Jun)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 157
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  027/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  011/012-008/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/25
Minor Storm           10/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/35