:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/1657Z from Region 3338 (N11E45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun,
20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 690 km/s at 16/2306Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/2257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/2005Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1619 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 158
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 160/155/155
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  008/008-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/35/35