:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0350Z from Region 3341 (S13E62). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 19/1616Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0836Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2273 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 169
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  011/014-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/35