:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
20/1709Z from Region 3341 (S15E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1151Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 180
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 180/185/190
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  011/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/25