:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1244Z from Region 3341 (S15E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2047Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2021Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1222 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 176
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  013/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  010/012-010/014-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/50/30