:Product: 0622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1121Z from Region 3341 (S15E34). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 21/2107Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/0715Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2547 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 173
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 180/180/185
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  010/014-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/20