:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
22/2344Z from Region 3340 (N22E07). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 23/1805Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/1552Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1448 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 170
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  008/010-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15