:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
25/1218Z from Region 3341 (S16W05). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 25/0656Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 24/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 24/2326Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 155
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  007/008-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/35/30