:Product: 0626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1622Z from Region 3340 (N20W45). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 646 km/s at 25/2210Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/1350Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 158
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  010/012-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/15/20