:Product: 0628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/0844Z from Region 3340 (N23W72). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/0020Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
28/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2119Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3512 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jun, 30 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 155
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/30