:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0235Z from Region 3359 (S22E41). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 02/0402Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0840Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2201 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 170
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  006/005-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20