:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/1235Z from Region 3354 (N16W87). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (05 Jul) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 04/0337Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/2356Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3264 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (07 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    50/20/20
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 167
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 165/160/160
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  006/005-006/005-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/35