:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/2339Z from Region 3361 (N23E45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (06 Jul) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (07 Jul) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare
on day three (08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 05/1030Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 05/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1353Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3583 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (07 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    30/20/20
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 154
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  006/005-016/020-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/30
Minor Storm           01/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/35/20