:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/1049Z from Region 3354. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 06/1638Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/1041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/0913Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1260 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jul), unsettled to
active levels on day two (08 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 158
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  016/020-014/018-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/20/20