:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/0629Z from Region 3359 (S22W27). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul,
10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 07/0326Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 07/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 07/0033Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 650 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 161
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  014/018-013/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20