:Product: 0709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
09/0009Z from Region 3366 (S10W38). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul,
12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 08/2111Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
08/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1811Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 860 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 179
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  008/008-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10