:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/1808Z from Region 3372 (N22E75). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 11/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0613Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 845 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 214
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 210/208/204
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  010/012-011/014-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/15