:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
12/0855Z from Region 3372 (N24E65). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul,
14 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 356 km/s at 12/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/1146Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 796 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14
Jul, 15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 193
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 190/188/188
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  010/012-012/014-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           15/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/40