:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
13/1920Z from Region 3372 (N24E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Jul,
15 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 12/2124Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 13/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
13/1634Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 443 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (14 Jul, 15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    20/15/15
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 203
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 200/202/198
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  012/014-016/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/30