:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
14/1844Z from Region 3370 (S15E08). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 14/1714Z. Total IMF reached 18
nT at 14/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
14/1742Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 293 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 181
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 182/180/180
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  018/022-010/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           25/15/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    45/30/10