:Product: 0715RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Jul 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/0741Z from Region 3363 (S22W47). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 15/1856Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/0944Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (18 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul). III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jul 179 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 180/180/182 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 160 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/010-009/012-019/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/35 Minor Storm 05/15/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/10 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/30/50