:Product: 0718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
18/0006Z from Region 3363 (S21W86). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (19 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 17/2204Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 18/0121Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 619 pfu at 18/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 936 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Jul, 21 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (20 Jul). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (19 Jul), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (20 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    55/45/45
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     95/70/50
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 219
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/012-018/028-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           10/30/20
Major-severe storm    01/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/40