:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/1725Z from the vicinity of Region 3363 (S21W90). There are currently
8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 18/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
19/1423Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 79 pfu at 18/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1140 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (20
Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (21 Jul) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    50/45/45
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     85/35/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 189
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 188/188/188
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  016/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  020/028-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/40/20