:Product: 0720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
20/1949Z from Region 3373 (N08W15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul,
23 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 20/1750Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 20/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
20/1635Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14 pfu at 19/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1856 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (21 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     25/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 184
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 185/185/185
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  015/020-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/15