:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/0337Z from Region 3372 (N25W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul,
25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 22/1728Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 21/2223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
21/2223Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 173 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 Jul, 25
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    45/45/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 174
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  008/008-009/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/25/20