:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
23/0454Z from Region 3373 (N09W57). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul,
26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 484 km/s at 23/1944Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
23/1811Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1909Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    45/30/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 173
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  009/012-010/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/10