:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
26/1037Z from Region 3376 (N23W82). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul,
29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 26/1614Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 25/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 25/2213Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    35/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 167
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 168/165/162
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  017/020-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    45/15/10