:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/0951Z from Region 3376 (N22W96). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul,
30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 26/2307Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/0232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
27/1038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 661 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Jul, 29 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    35/25/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 165
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 165/162/158
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  023/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20