:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
28/1558Z from Region 3376 (N23, L=228). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul,
31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 28/0104Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/1438Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 753 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Jul, 31
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (30 Jul). Protons greater
than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Jul) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     90/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 168
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 165/162/158
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  008/008-011/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20