:Product: 0730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0814Z from Region 3390 (S19E46). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 30/0939Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0415Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 62 pfu at 29/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (31 Jul, 01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     30/30/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 174
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  008/010-023/030-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/45