:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/0900Z from Region 3390 (S20E34). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03
Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 30/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
31/0238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/0417Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 30/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Aug, 02
Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 177
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  018/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  023/030-014/018-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/25/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/45/20