:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/1452Z from Region 3380 (S10W66). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (03 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 02/0127Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 02/0501Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
02/1250Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (04 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (05 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    55/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 173
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  009/010-013/020-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/45
Minor Storm           05/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/50