:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
03/1155Z from Region 3380 (S11W80). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (04 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 03/1509Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/1134Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    55/35/35
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 163
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 160/160/162
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  010/015-020/026-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/50/25