:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/2221Z from Region 3386 (N11W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (07 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 06/0737Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
06/0314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/1623Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17 pfu at 06/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08
Aug, 09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    55/25/25
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 174
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 168/166/164
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  024/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  009/012-014/020-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor Storm           05/30/10
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/20